China’s economy mostly remained resilient in the face of US tariffs
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Economy Watch | China

Monthly updates on the state of the economy in China

China’s economy mostly remained resilient in the face of US tariffs in April 

This China Economy Watch provides a comprehensive analysis of where the Chinese economy stood in the face of China-US tariff war in April and aims to help members with interests in China better comprehend the Chinese macro-economy and inform their business planning.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Status of China’s Economy: In April, China’s key economic indicators remained resilient despite higher US tariffs
    The “temporary” de-escalation of China-US tariffs, coupled with the implementation of some supportive monetary policies earlier this month (including interest rate cuts), suggests that short-term economic pressure may be easing. However, the economy continues to face headwinds from weak domestic demand, the ongoing property downturn, and unpredictable US trade policy. 
  • Investment Trends: Manufacturing investment remains robust; property investment continues to contract
    Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew 4.0% y-o-y in the January-to-April period (Jan-Apr), down from 4.2% in Q1. Manufacturing investment remains robust (8.8% in Jan-Apr vs. 9.1% in Q1), and infrastructure investment remains solid (5.8% in Jan-Apr and Q1). Conversely, property investment continues to contract (-10.3% in Jan-Apr vs. -9.9% in Q1). Looking ahead, the expected acceleration in government bond issuance in the coming months should continue to support infrastructure and manufacturing investment.

China’s economy mostly remained resilient in the face of US tariffs

June 03, 2025

China’s economy mostly remained resilient in the face of US tariffs in April 

This China Economy Watch provides a comprehensive analysis of where the Chinese economy stood in the face of China-US tariff war in April and aims to help members with interests in China better comprehend the Chinese macro-economy and inform their business planning.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Status of China’s Economy: In April, China’s key economic indicators remained resilient despite higher US tariffs
    The “temporary” de-escalation of China-US tariffs, coupled with the implementation of some supportive monetary policies earlier this month (including interest rate cuts), suggests that short-term economic pressure may be easing. However, the economy continues to face headwinds from weak domestic demand, the ongoing property downturn, and unpredictable US trade policy. 
  • Investment Trends: Manufacturing investment remains robust; property investment continues to contract
    Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew 4.0% y-o-y in the January-to-April period (Jan-Apr), down from 4.2% in Q1. Manufacturing investment remains robust (8.8% in Jan-Apr vs. 9.1% in Q1), and infrastructure investment remains solid (5.8% in Jan-Apr and Q1). Conversely, property investment continues to contract (-10.3% in Jan-Apr vs. -9.9% in Q1). Looking ahead, the expected acceleration in government bond issuance in the coming months should continue to support infrastructure and manufacturing investment.

  • Consumption Trends: Retail sales continue to be buoyed by the consumer trade-in program, but confidence remains weak
    Retail sales grew 5.1% y-o-y in April, down from 5.9% in March. The consumer goods trade-in program continues to be the key driver of retail sales in aggregate. The government announced that RMB 300 billion would be spent on expanding the consumer goods trade-in program this year, compared with RMB 150 billion allocated last year. Additionally, earlier this month, the government expanded relending tools to provide an additional RMB 500 billion to promote services consumption. While consumer spending is expected to benefit from ongoing government support in 2025, the anticipated measures are unlikely to restore consumer confidence, which has remained deeply negative for three year.
  • Trends: Export grow

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