Out of Gas: How Diesel Prices Affect Business Conditions
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Out of Gas: How Diesel Prices Affect Business Conditions

13 October 2026 / Backgrounder

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Record-high diesel prices underscore how much integrated supply chains and logistics costs can affect people, businesses, and the economy. This article assesses the extent to which diesel prices will continue to remain high—and how global enterprises should plan for these elevated transportation costs.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Historically high diesel prices have transmitted the oil shock caused by the war in Iran through to the price of almost every physical good. The burden begins with trucking but also reaches rail, agriculture, construction, mining, ports, and backup power.
  • The current price spike goes beyond the cost of crude: disrupted overseas refineries, high US exports, low US distillate inventories, and near-full refinery utilization have combined to lift both the feedstock cost and the diesel refining margin.
  • Relief will require global oil and product flows to normalize and inventories across many economies to rebuild. Record US crude production cannot, by itself, create additional diesel when refining and logistics are the binding constraints.
  • Businesses should expect price volatility into 2027 and prepare through fuel-surcharge clauses, route and load optimization, supplier diversification, inventory prioritization, and selective shifts to rail or alternative-fuel fleets.

Record-high diesel prices underscore how much integrated supply chains and logistics costs can affect people, businesses, and the economy. This article assesses the extent to which diesel prices will continue to remain high—and how global enterprises should plan for these elevated transportation costs.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Historically high diesel prices have transmitted the oil shock caused by the war in Iran through to the price of almost every physical good. The burden begins with trucking but also reaches rail, agriculture, construction, mining, ports, and backup power.
  • The current price spike goes beyond the cost of crude: disrupted overseas refineries, high US exports, low US distillate inventories, and near-full refinery utilization have combined to lift both the feedstock cost and the diesel refining margin.
  • Relief will require global oil and product flows to normalize and inventories across many economies to rebuild. Record US crude production cannot, by itself, create additional diesel when refining and logistics are the binding constraints.
  • Businesses should expect price volatility into 2027 and prepare through fuel-surcharge clauses, route and load optimization, supplier diversification, inventory prioritization, and selective shifts to rail or alternative-fuel fleets.

Author

Alex Heil

Alex Heil Alex Heil, PhD

Senior Economist, ESF
The Conference Board

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