The COVID-19 crisis has driven down consumer confidence around the world. But three critical dimensions of the crisis will shape confidence in the months ahead: (1) increases in new cases and deaths due to the virus; (2) the impact on jobs and household incomes; and (3) government policy to mitigate its effects.

Experts at The Conference Board scored 21 countries along these three dimensions to determine how fast consumer confidence would rebound.

China and South Korea, countries well past the first wave of cases, successfully implemented strict containment policies and have begun to open up their economies again; confidence there will likely rebound fairly quickly. Elsewhere in Asia, Indonesia and India struggle to provide an effective policy response and may recover more slowly, though cases have been limited so far.

In Europe, there’s great diversity in the policy response: Germany’s proactive containment measures, among the most robust in Europe, may support a swift recovery. But in the UK, a delayed policy response may result in greater job and income losses, leading to a longer period of low confidence.

In the Gulf region and Canada, and to some extent in the US and Mexico, the decline in oil prices adds to the pressure on consumer confidence. The speed and dynamics of the recovery in consumer confidence will vary, so companies should carefully monitor consumer behavior by region and adapt.

For detailed analysis for economies around the world, please see The Conference Board report on Global Consumer Confidence.