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For Release 9:00 AM ET, October 28, 2026
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China ticked down by 0.1% in September 2026 to 147.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.3% in August. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.8% over the six-month period from March to September 2026, a larger rate of decline compared to the 1.2% decrease over the previous six-month period.
“The China LEI declined in September — for the seventh time year to date,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Consumer expectations remained the primary drag on the index. Additionally, the logistics prosperity and medium- and long-term loan components recorded notable declines. Floor space started, urban labor market demand, and imports of machinery and transportation equipment improved in September, but not enough to offset the weaknesses from the remaining components.”
“The semi-annual growth rate of the LEI stayed firmly in negative territory in September, and the 6-month diffusion index remained below 50, triggering the recession warning signal. However, we continue to anticipate annual real GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025,” added Brennan. “China’s economy grew by 4.5% y/y in Q3 but remains deeply imbalanced, with the supply-side outpacing domestic demand. The divergence between GDP growth and the LEI comes primarily from strong exports and central government support for key industries.”
“Exports continue to bolster economic growth, surging 36.3% y/y in September. The declining trend in the China LEI moderated in September, due in part to m/m growth in floor space started. However, the property sector remains depressed with floor space started declining 24.9% y/y in the first nine months of 2026. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index remains well below its historical average, weighing heavily on the overall index. Without significant fiscal stimulus, domestic demand is expected to remain weak through the remainder of 2026.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China rose by 1.5% in September 2026 to 161.1 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4% in August. The CEI expanded by 1.1% over the six-month period from March to September 2026, slightly lower than the 1.2% growth rate registered over the previous six-month period.
The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 24, 2026, at 9:00 A.M. ET
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NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.8%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for China are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for China are:
To access data, please visit: https://www.conference-board.org/data
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org l Learn about Membership
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