Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:00 AM ET, August 14, 2026

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, edged down by 0.2% in July 2026 to 126.5 (2016=100), only partially reversing a 1.1% increase in June. Over the six-month period between January 2026 and July 2026, the LEI also contracted by 0.2%, a much slower rate of growth than the 4.1% increase over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 0.1% to 116.0 (2016=100) in July 2026, following decreases of 0.4% and 0.3% in May and June, respectively. As a result, the CEI fell by 0.5% over the six-month period between January 2026 and July 2026, a much weaker performance compared to 1.8% expansion over the previous six-month period.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 10 A.M. ET.

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI declined slightly in July following a sharp increase in June, continuing several months of volatility in the index  

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

The decline was driven primarily by weakness in non-financial components such as expectations for manufacturing and services sectors

The annual growth rate for the Brazil LEI improved further in July and despite recent decline, is still indicating tailwinds to economic activity in the near term  

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

 The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around six months.

 The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for Brazil are:

• Swap Rate - 1 year
• Ibovespa, Bovespa Index
• Manufacturing Survey, Expectations Index
• Services Sector Survey, Expectations Index
• Consumers Survey, Expectations Index
• Terms of Trade, Index
• Physical Production, Durables Consumer Goods, Index
• Exports, Quantum, Index

The six components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil are:

• Industrial production
• Industrial Electric Energy Consumption
• Shipments of Corrugated Paper
• Volume of Sales of the Retail Market
• Occupied Employment Population
• Average Real Income of Workers

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre