Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, January 21, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area ticked down by 0.1% in December 2025 to 98.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.2% in November. As a result, over the second half of 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.1%, a smaller rate than the 2.5% decline experienced over the previous the first half (December 2024 to June 2025).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the Euro Area ticked up by 0.1% in December 2025 to 110.0 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.1% in November. Overall, the CEI increased by 0.4% in the second half of 2025, a continuation of the growth (0.4%) from the first half.

“The Euro Area LEI declined on a month-on-month and six-month basis in December,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Consumer expectations were once again the primary driver of weakness, while volume of order books and expected demand in the service sector remained subdued. Negative contributions from these components more than offset gains from financial components, which continued to show resilience.”

“The 6-month growth rate of the Euro Area LEI, has become less negative, signaling dissipating pressure on economic activity,” continued Brennan. “Broad-based tariffs from the US and rising competition from China have created a more challenging external environment for the Euro Area. However, a more supportive fiscal impulse from major economies like Germany and improving domestic demand look to offset these pressures heading into 2026. Taken altogether, after modest expansion in Q3, The Conference Board still expects annual real GDP growth in the Euro Area to reach 1% in 2025 and possibly improve to 1.2% in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, February 18, 2026, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The Euro Area LEI continued its downward trend in December

Financial components remained strong in December while consumer expectations, volume of order books, and demand in the services sector continued to weigh on the index

The 6-month growth rate of the Euro Area LEI, was less negative and remained above the recession threshold

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −5.6%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• ECB Minimum Bid Yield Spread
• Consumer Expectations of the General Economic Situation
• EURO STOXX® Price Index
• Industry Production Expectations
• Services Expected Demand
• Volume of Order Books
• Index of Residential Building Permits
• Systemic Stress Composite Indicator

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• Industrial Production
• Employment
• Retail Sales
• Manufacturing Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org