Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, October 17, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France rose by 0.4% in August 2025 to 109.9 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3% in July. Overall, the France LEI grew by 2.0% over the six-month period from February to August 2025, more than reversing the decline of 0.5% over the previous period, from August 2024 to February 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France inched up by 0.1% to 111.1 (2016=100) in August 2025, after being unchanged in July. Over the six-month period from February to August 2025, the CEI for France increased by 0.5%, after declining by 0.2% over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI increased for a third consecutive month in August,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “However, as in June and July, the positive yield spread was the largest positive contributor and driver of the LEI. Meanwhile, the new unemployment claims (3-month moving average), and building permits improved just slightly while production expectations were moderately down. Overall, the 6-month and annual growth rates of the France LEI eased a little but still signaled a supportive economic environment as of August, despite global trade tensions, including US tariffs on imports from the EU. However, the August LEI did not fully capture the most recent political and fiscal uncertainty and its potential negative impact on economic activity. The Conference Board currently expects GDP growth at 0.6% in 2025, and 0.7% in 2026.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, November 13, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The France LEI increased again in August, holding a steady uptrend since January

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.4%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for France are:

• Yield Spread
• Stock Prices
• Building Permits
• New Unemployment Claims
• Industrial New Orders
• Production Expectations
• Ratio P/L Cost

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for France are:

• Industrial Production
• Personal Consumption
• Employment (Private sector)
• Wages and Salaries

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. tcb.org