Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, September 17, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.1% in August 2025 to 118.5 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in July. The LEI expanded by 0.4% over the six-month period between February and August 2025, after contracting by 2.6% over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.2% in August 2025 to 117.1 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in July. The previously reported unusually large increase in the CEI release for July reflected a structural change to the employment component, a result of a pilot program to include digital platform workers registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS). IMSS has since revised the series to integrate these workers consistently through the months since the start of the program. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.2% over the period between February and August 2025, after contracting by 0.3% over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025.

“The Mexico LEI ticked up in August,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The increase was driven by positive contributions from higher stock prices, as well as slight improvements in the construction component of industrial production and the federal funds rate, which offset negative effects from manufacturing inventories and the exchange rate. Additionally, the annual growth rate of the LEI improved in August but remained negative, pointing to continued, although potentially less acute, economic challenges ahead. The Mexico economic outlook also faces risks from intensifying trade uncertainty as the US tariffs on Mexico are still on pause and discussions about Mexican tariffs on Chinese imports have emerged. Overall, The Conference Board forecasts that real GDP growth will slow in Q3 and only reach 0.9% for the whole of 2025.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, October 21, 2025, at 11 A.M. ET.

The Mexico LEI ticked up in August

The slight increase in the LEI was mostly driven by an increase in stock prices

The annual growth rate of the LEI continued to improve in August but remained negative

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.

The six components of the Leading Economic Index® for Mexico are:

• Industrial Production (Construction)
• Stock Prices
• Petroleum Exports: Crude (US$/Barrel)
• Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance)
• Federal Funds, Money Market Rate
• Real Exchange Rate

The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Mexico are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment, IMSS Beneficiaries

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org