Email
Linkedin
Facebook
X
Copy Link
Loading...
For Release 9:00 AM ET, August 27, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China Declined Again in July
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.3% in July 2025 to 147.4 (2016=100), after also contracting by 0.3% in June. As a result, the LEI declined by 2.0% over the six-month period from January to July 2025, after decreasing by 1.4% over the previous six-month period between July 2024 and January 2025.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China increased by 0.9% in July 2025 to 155.7 (2016=100), after expanding by 1.1% in June. Overall, the Index grew by 3.2% over six-month period from January to July 2025, more than three times the 1.0% growth observed over the previous six-month period between July 2024 and January 2025.
“The China LEI declined again in July, marking its seventh consecutive monthly drop in 2025,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Machinery and transportation equipment imports bolstered the index, but not enough to offset widespread weaknesses among other components. Indeed, 5 out of 8 components weighed negatively on the LEI. Notably, consumer confidence has been depressed since April 2022 and continued to be a major drag on the Index. With the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and with the 6-month diffusion falling below 50, the recession signal went off again in July. The 90-day extension of the tariff pause on August 11th may give China’s economy some temporary relief, but pressure from weak domestic demand, the continuing property downturn, and global uncertainties will persist. As such, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.7% in 2025 after 5.0% in 2024.”
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 9:00 A.M. ET
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.8%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for China are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for China are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Increased in July
August 25, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Increased Again in July
August 20, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Decreased in July
August 19, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Decreased Again in July
August 15, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the UK Continued to Fall in June
August 14, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Increased Again in June
August 14, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
August 21, 2025 | Database
July 29, 2025 | Report
Business & Economics Portfolio
July 03, 2025 | Database
The Economy Stabilized in August but Outlook Remains Weak
September 27, 2023 | Report
China's Economic Recovery Continues to Stutter (Economy Watch: China View, June 2023)
June 30, 2023 | Report
Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession
December 07, 2022 | Article
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024
Is a Global Recession on the Horizon?
July 13, 2022
