Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, August 14, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.1% in June 2025 to 74.5 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.1% in May. As a result, the UK LEI contracted by 1.5% over the first half of the year, a higher rate of decline than the -0.8% over the second half of 2024 (June to December 2024).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom increased by 0.2% in June 2025 to 107.9 (2016=100), after no change in May. Overall, the CEI for the UK expanded by 0.7% over the first half of 2025, slowing slightly from the 0.9% growth over the second half of 2024.

“The UK LEI continued to fall in June, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022,” said Timothy Brennan, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The UK LEI’s decline was driven by deteriorating consumer expectations, a decrease in weekly working hours (in part due to the heat wave), and weaker housing sales expectations. The stock market increased, although much less than in May, and the number of unemployment claimants declined. However, these positive contributions only mitigated the decline. While the 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI was above the recession threshold, the warning signal remained because of the persisting weakness among the components. Overall, the LEI reading suggests that economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025 but will be positive. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2025, after 1.1% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, September 12, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The UK LEI continued its downward trend in June

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −3.6%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K.

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Unemployment Claimant Counts
• Weekly Working Hours
• GfK Consumer Survey: General Economic Situation: Next 12 months
• Stock prices, FTSE all share prices index
• Yield Spread
• Productivity, Whole Economy
• Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations
• Housing Sales Expectation for next 3 months^©

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.K. are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment
• Real Household Disposable Income

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org