Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

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Released: Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in March.

• The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased again in March, with net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the construction component of industrial production making the largest positive contributions. The leading economic index increased 3.4 percent (about a 6.9 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending March 2013, a large improvement from the contraction of 0.3 percent (about a -0.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread in recent months.
• The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity increased slightly in March, after a small decline in February. Between September 2012 and March 2013, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate), down from an increase of 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2013, down from 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2012.
• The LEI for Mexico has been increasing for the past four months, and its six-month growth rate has picked up significantly since the second half of 2012. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico edged up in March but its growth rate, although still positive, has been slowing in recent months. Taken together, the recent improvement in the LEI and its components suggests that economic expansion will continue, and the rate may even pick up slightly in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — were net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) real exchange rate, industrial production construction component, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and stock prices decreased in March.

With the 0.7 percent increase in March, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 127.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in February and increased 2.0 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 3.4 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in March. The positive contributor was industrial production. Retail Sales* declined, while number of people employed remained unchanged in March.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 122.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in February and increased 0.1 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 0.2 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. May 20, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

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