Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, November 15, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in September following two consecutive monthly gains. Large negative contributions from the construction component of industrial production and the (inverted) real exchange rate more than offset gains from net inefficient inventories and stock prices. With this month’s decline, the six-month change in the leading economic index stands at -2.7 percent (about a -5.4 percent annual rate), a reversal from the increase of 3.6 percent (about a 7.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become very widespread in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in September. Between March and September 2013, the coincident economic index grew 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the growth of 0.2 percent (about a 0.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, after increasing 0.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of this year.
- The LEI for Mexico declined in September after increasing and its six-month change has fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico remained unchanged in September, and its six-month growth rate was slightly up compared to the first half of this year. Taken together, continued widespread weakness in the LEI in recent months suggests that economic activity is likely to remain subdued through the end of 2013.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are net insufficient inventories, stock prices, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The industrial production construction component, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and oil prices decreased in September.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 124.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index decreased 2.7 percent, with one of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributor was number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Industrial production and retail sales* declined in September.
Holding steady in September, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 0.5 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. November 13, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
1 212 339 0257
1 212 339 0232
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