The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in May

08 Jun. 2015

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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in May. The index now stands at 128.60, up from 128.10 (a downward revision) in April. The change represents a 5.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“In the past six months, the Employment Trends Index has been growing at a 3.5 percent annual rate, which is solid, but slower than the rates of the past two years. We therefore expect employment to grow by about 200,000 new jobs per month, rather than the spectacular 250,000-300,000 we experienced in 2014,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “Given that the labor force is barely expanding, job growth of about 200,000 per month will be sufficient to continue rapidly lowering the unemployment rate.”

May’s increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month

**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
www.conference-board.org

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS INDEX (ETI)™ 2015 PUBLICATION SCHEDULE

Monday, July 6
Monday, August 10
Tuesday, September 8
Monday, October 5
Monday, November 9 
Monday, December 7

For further information contact:

Carol Courter 1 212 339 0232 carol.courter@conference-board.org

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Human Capital Exchange™
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About the Author
Gad Levanon, Ph.D.
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Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic and labor market research, shares insights on labor market trends and the implications for business

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