Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, November 14, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea increased 0.6 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea declined 0.2 percent in September.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased again in September, with letter of credit arrivals and stock prices making the largest positive contributions. Despite this month’s increase, the leading economic index contracted by 0.9 percent (about a -1.8 percent annual rate) between March and September 2013, down from the increase of 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, declined this month. Between March and September 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 1.0 percent (about a 2.0 percent annual rate), a reversal from the 0.3 percent decrease (about a -0.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013, down moderately from 4.5 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
- The LEI for Korea has increased in the last two months, but despite these improvements its six-month change remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, The CEI for Korea declined in September, but its six-month growth rate has improved compared to earlier this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components continue to suggest that the rate of economic growth is likely to ease in the months ahead and possibly into 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in September. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, stock prices, private construction orders, real exports FOB, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments and value of machinery orders.
With the 0.6 percent increase in September, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 120.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in August and remained unchanged in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading economic index decreased 0.9 percent, with one of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in September. The positive contributors– in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment and monthly cash earnings*. Industrial production and the wholesale and retail sales component declined in September.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 117.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in August and increased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the coincident economic index increased 1.0 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on November 13, 2013.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
1 212 339 0257
1 212 339 0232
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