Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, November 24, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in October to 305.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
“Growth in the China Leading Economic Index eased a bit in October, driven by continued weakness in consumer expectations,” said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Meanwhile, the central bank cut interest rates in late November amid weak current economic conditions. This is consistent with the moderating growth rate in the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which registered zero growth for the first time since January 2014.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in October at 266.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in September and a 0.1 percent increase in August. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in October.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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About The Conference Board
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