Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Tuesday, November 19, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.6 percent in October. The index stands at 273.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “Growth in the China LEI slowed somewhat in October due to weak real estate activity, only partly offset by an improved outlook for manufacturing production and exports. The central government’s tacit endorsement of looser real estate restrictions earlier this year, which helped create stronger economic growth in Q3, has reversed due to quickly rising prices. Slower property investment, coupled with a slightly tightened monetary stance, is likely to translate into weaker economic activity in Q4 and into 2014.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent in October to 250.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September and a 1.2 percent increase in August. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in October.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
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