Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, February 12, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in January to 314.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent increase in November. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, “The six-month growth in the leading index for China continued to decelerate in January, mainly due to subdued export growth and manufacturing performance. The softening in the short-term trend of the LEI, along with other high-frequency statistics, suggests that China’s growth in 2015 is off to a weak start.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent in January to 271.0 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in December and a 0.1 percent increase in November. All five components contributed positively to the index in January.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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About The Conference Board
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