Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, May 16, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.5 percent in April. The Index stands at 260.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in March and a 1.3 percent increase in February. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The LEI for China rebounded in April primarily due to renewed real estate activity and credit expansion. But both factors remain major wild cards for growth: real estate activity has been volatile recently, and credit has become less effective at boosting the economy. While these drivers may help ease the slowdown in the short-term, the shackle of overcapacity in the industrial sector will remain a drag on the economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in April to 237.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March and a 2.8 percent increase in February. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicators Program: 212-339-0330
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