Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, January 26, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.1 percent in December to 311.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in November and a 0.9 percent increase in October. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
“China's current economic activity picked up in December on the back of strong consumption and a surge in electricity production,” said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Meanwhile, the leading economic index for China accelerated only slightly in December with consumer expectations and real estate remaining subdued, suggesting weak economic growth in Q1 2015.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1 percent in December to 269.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in both November and October. All five components contributed positively to the index in December.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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About The Conference Board
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