Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, May 21, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.1 percent in April to 322.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in March and a 1.4 percent increase in February. Total floor space started made a very large positive contribution to the index, while the consumer expectations index was the only negative contributor in April.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
“Despite April’s gain in the Leading Economic Index for China, its six-month increase rate continues to slow, confirming a soft growth outlook for China’s economy through the summer,” said Jing Sima, senior economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “In addition, the flatness in the Coincident Economic Index for China suggests that the series of growth-support measures announced so far this year has not yet strengthened economic activity.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in April at 275.9 (2004 = 100), following a 2.9 percent increase in March and a 0.7 percent decrease in February. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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About The Conference Board
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