Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Monday, March 24, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in February. The index stands at 282.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase in December. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
“The China Leading Economic Index accelerated in February on the back of strong bank lending. At the same time, we see that despite high credit creation, the slowdown in current economic activity deepened in the first two months of the year,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “This suggests that any government intent to support growth more actively in the coming months is unlikely to help much in improving economic conditions.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.2 percent in February to 252.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent decline in January and a 1.5 percent increase in December. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in February.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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About The Conference Board
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