Global Business Cycle Indicators
Latest Press Release
Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.
Released: Tuesday, June 23, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.1 percent in May to 326.2 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in April and a 0.2 percent increase in March. The consumer expectations index, total loans issued by financial institutions, total floor space started, the PMI new export orders index, and the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index made positive contributions to the index, while the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index was the only negative contributor in May.
Download a PDF of the press release in Chinese.
“Growth in the LEI moderated somewhat in May, dragged down by weak manufacturing data, poor export performance, and still-struggling new construction starts,” said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “The growth rate of the LEI has been very volatile in recent months suggesting the second quarter’s economic stabilization will be shallow and short-lived.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent to 277.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April and a 2.9 percent increase in March. All five components contributed positively to the index in May.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes: www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Indicator Program: email@example.com
1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
All material on Our Sites are protected by United States and international copyright laws. You must abide by all copyright notices and restrictions contained in Our Sites.
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) on Our Sites ("Site Material"), except that you may download Site Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use only for personal, noncommercial purposes, and only if you do not alter Site Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the Site Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered on Our Sites, you may be permitted to use Site Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
"THE CONFERENCE BOARD," the TORCH LOGO, "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX", "THE CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX", and "THE CONFERENCE BOARD LAGGING ECONOMIC INDEX", and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries ("Our Trademarks"). You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether we are the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Violators of these rights will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.