Email
Linkedin
Facebook
Twitter
Copy Link
The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
LEI for Australia Retreated in March
Latest Press Release
Updated: Wednesday, May 14, 2025
For Release 10:30 AM ET, May 14, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia retreated by 0.4% in March 2025 to 114.0 (2016=100), following a 0.1% decrease in February. Still, the LEI grew by 1.2% over the six-month period from September 2024 to March 2025, reversing the 1.1% contraction over the previous six-month period between March and September 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia increased 0.2% in March 2025 to 117.6 (2016=100), after ticking down by 0.1% in February. Overall, the CEI grew by 0.9% over the six-month period from September 2024 to March 2025, a continuation of the 1.0% growth experienced over the previous six-month period.
“The LEI for Australia retreated in March after ticking down in February,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The recent decline was mostly limited to two components. The first being rural goods exports, which declined primarily due to draughts that culled livestock and crop numbers, followed by share prices, as global markets braced for trade policy uncertainty. Building approvals and money supply also made a mildly negative contribution. Looking more broadly, only share prices declined over the last six months, while the other six components of the Australia LEI remained in positive territory. Moreover, the annual growth rate of the LEI continued to improve, suggesting that headwinds to growth should remain mild in the near term. After growing by 1% in 2024, The Conference Board currently forecasts that Australia’s annual real GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.
The Australia LEI retreated in March
Rural goods exports and share prices weighed on the Index in March; building approvals and M3 money supply also contributed mildly negatively
The annual growth rate of the Australia LEI moved into positive territory in March, for the first time in over two years
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Australia are:
- Yield Spread, 10Y – Policy Rate
- Share Prices, All Ordinaries S&P/ASX 200
- Money Supply, M3
- Building Approvals
- Rural Goods Exports
- Non-Farm Sector, Sale to Inventories Ratio
- Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corp.
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Australia are:
- Employment
- Household Income
- Industrial Production
- Retail Trade
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
