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The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ is a barometer of the health of the US economy from the perspective of US chief executives. The measure of CEO confidence is based on CEOs' perceptions of current and expected business and industry conditions. The survey also gauges CEOs' expectations about future actions their companies plan on taking in four key areas: capital spending, employment, recruiting, and wages.
Confidence Revived in Q3 but CEOs Remain Cautious
Latest Press Release
Updated: Thursday, August 7, 2025
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose to 49 in Q3 2025, up 15 points from 34 in Q2. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) A total of 122 CEOs participated in the Q3 survey, which was fielded from July 14 to 28.
“CEO confidence recovered in the third quarter after collapsing in Q2, but fell short of signaling a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “The improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes between the US and China became less intense and potentially reflects ongoing progress on trade negotiations. All three components of the Measure improved from deep pessimism to near neutral. CEOs’ views on current economic conditions made the sharpest recovery. Their six-month expectations for the economy as a whole and in their own industries also improved. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also recovered but remained in pessimistic territory. Fear of recession within the next 12-18 months eased dramatically, to 36% in Q3 from 83% in Q2.”
“Notably, trade and tariffs risks receded in Q3 to third place among the top business risks impacting CEOs’ industries, below geopolitical instability and cyber risks,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Slightly more CEOs reported some difficulty finding qualified workers than in previous quarters. Meanwhile, the share of CEOs expecting some reduction in the size of their workforce over the next 12 months rose for the fifth consecutive quarter, to 34%. For the first time since 2020, CEOs planning to shrink their workforce exceeded the share looking to expand (27%), though a plurality continued to anticipate little change (39%, down from 44%).”
Ferguson continued: “The share of CEOs planning to raise wages by 3% or more over the next year ticked up to 61% from 58% in Q2. As in previous quarters, most CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months. However, for a second consecutive quarter, the share of CEOs expecting to cut back investment plans was higher than the share expecting to upgrade them.”
Asked where they faced increasing cost pressures, most CEOs cited suppliers (71%), materials (64%), and technology (63%). Wages came in fourth at 47%. Regarding strategies to manage costs, CEOs overwhelmingly mentioned relying on technology to increase productivity (93%), negotiating with suppliers (89%), and upskilling their workforce (83%). These top strategies were followed by cuts in operating costs (73%) and pass-through to higher consumer prices (64%). Only 19% of CEOs planned to absorb higher costs in profit margins and very few planned to cut R&D.
Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions partially rebounded in Q3 2025:
- 34% of CEOs said economic conditions were worse than six months ago, down from 82% in Q2.
- 22% said economic conditions were better, up significantly from 2%.
CEOs’ assessments of conditions in their own industries also improved in Q3:
- 38% of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were worse than six months ago, down from 69% in Q2.
- 18% said conditions in their industries were better, up from just 7%.
Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook recovered to neutral in Q3:
- 30% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, down from 64% in Q2.
- 30% expected economic conditions to improve, up from 18%.
CEOs’ expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries became slightly optimistic in Q3:
- 25% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to worsen over the next six months, down from 51%.
- 30% expected conditions in their own industry to improve, up from 18% in Q2.
Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending
- Employment: 34% of CEOs expected a net reduction in their workforce over the next 12 months, up from 28% in Q2. The share of CEOs planning to expand their workforce ticked down to 27% from 28%, while 39% of CEOs planned to maintain the size of their workforce, down from 44% last quarter.
- Hiring Qualified People: Most CEOs continued to report no problemsinhiring overall, but the share of CEOs reporting trouble hiring in key areas rose.
- Wages: Most CEOs (53%) planned to increase salaries by 3.0–3.9% over the next 12 months, unchanged from Q2.
- Capital Spending: 21% of CEOs expected to revise spending plans downward, down from 26% in Q2. But the share of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending also shrunk—to 15% in Q3 from 19% in Q2. Most CEOs (64%) indicated no plans to revise capital spending.
US Recession:
The share of CEOs expecting a recession fell to 36% in Q3 after a spike in Q2
Industry Risks:
CEOs ranked geopolitical instability and cyber threats as top concerns for their industry, while concerns about trade and tariffs eased somewhat
Cost Pressures:
Most CEOs report increased cost pressures from suppliers, as well as in materials and technology
Managing Costs:
CEOs cite productivity-enhancing technology, negotiations with suppliers, and upskilling as their top strategies for managing costs, but nearly two-thirds (64%) also expect to raise consumer prices
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council’s website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org
