Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, June 18, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in May to 123.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in April, and a 0.4 percent increase in March.
“The U.S. LEI increased sharply again in May, confirming the outlook for more economic expansion in the second half of the year after what looks to be a much weaker first half,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, at The Conference Board. “While residential construction and consumer expectations support the more positive outlook, industrial production and new orders in manufacturing are painting a somewhat more mixed picture.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in May to 112.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and no change in March.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 117.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and a 0.5 percent increase in March.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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