Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, October 23, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.8 percent in September to 104.4 (2004 = 100), following no change in August, and a 1.1 percent increase in July.
“The LEI picked up in September, after no change in August, and the strengths among its components have been very widespread over the past six months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The outlook for improving employment and further income growth are expected to support the moderate expansion in the U.S economy for the remainder of the year.”
“The financial markets are reflecting turmoil and unease, but the data on the leading indicators continue to suggest moderate growth in the short-term,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “Meanwhile, the weak advances in the housing market remain a bigger risk to the outlook than short-term financial gyrations.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in September to 110.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 125.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Ken Goldstein: +1 (212) 339-0331
Indicator Program: firstname.lastname@example.org
+1 (212) 339-0232
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