Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, May 21, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in April to 122.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent decline in February.
“April’s sharp increase in the LEI seems to have helped stabilize its slowing trend, suggesting the paltry economic growth in the first quarter may be temporary,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “However, the growth of the LEI does not support a significant strengthening in the economic outlook at this time. The improvement in building permits helped to drive the index up this month, but gains in other components, in particular the financial indicators, have been somewhat more muted.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in April to 112.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in March, and a 0.2 percent increase in February.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in April to 116.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent increase in February.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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+1 (212) 339-0232
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