Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Friday, July 18, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in June to 102.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April.
“Broad-based increases in the LEI over the last six months signal an economy that is expanding in the near term and may even somewhat accelerate in the second half,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, the weakest indicator during this period, reflects some risk to this improving outlook. But favorable financial conditions, generally positive trends in the labor markets and the outlook for new orders in manufacturing have offset the housing market weakness over the past six months.”
“The CEI shows the pace of economic activity continued to expand moderately through June,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “Stronger consumer demand driven by sustained job gains and improving confidence remains the main source of improvement for the U.S. economy. In addition to a stronger housing market, more business investment could also provide an upside to the overall economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in June to 109.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in June to 124.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in May, and a 0.4 percent increase in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Ken Goldstein: +1 (212) 339-0331
Indicator Program: firstname.lastname@example.org
+1 (212) 339-0232
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