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CORRECTION: Due to a programming error, the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) component Change in Labor Cost/Unit Output in Manufacturing was omitted in the release issued on Jan. 21, 2022 @10AM ET. The error has been corrected and the entire history has now been updated. In addition, the release did not include the previously announced revision to the components for the Leading Credit Index™ (LCI). These changes will be incorporated in the February 2022 release. The LEI and CEI readings were not impacted. BENCHMARK NOTICE: The January 2022 release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@tcb.org |
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased by 0.8 percent in December to 120.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November and a 0.7 percent increase in October.
“The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent—well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in December to 107.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.5 percent increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.2C percent in December to 109.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.3C percent increase in October.
C - Corrected
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
The next release is scheduled for Friday, February 18 at 10 A.M. ET
For further information contact:
Joseph DiBlasi
781.308.7935
jdiblasi@tcb.org
Jonathan Liu
jliu@tcb.org
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
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