The Conference Board Economics Watch® Emerging Markets View
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Publication Date:
June 2012
Emerging Market Growth to Gradually Slow in 2012, but Downside Risks Remain Strong
• The recovery in mature economies, except Europe, will be more than offset by slower growth in emerging markets in 2012
• The slowdown in emerging markets in 2012 will occur mainly as a result of those economies reverting back to trend growth
• So far the easing of activity can be seen most acutely in industrial production and investment
• However, some stabilization can already be seen in consumer sentiment, stock markets and Purchasing Manager Indexes
• Policy focus has begun to shift from inflation control to growth support, but policy makers remain somewhat cautious with fiscal boosts and monetary loosening
• Hard-landing risks are ever-present, in particular in China, but Europe could be most important factor in larger slowdown