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November 16, 2016 | Report
This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 32 emerging market economies for 2017, 2017–2022, and 2022–2026. The projections are based primarily on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the contributions of the use of labor and capital inputs as well as total factor productivity growth to the growth of real GDP. The model also considers demand-side elements such as savings, and socioeconomic variables such as life expectancy and educational attainment. We also incorporate measures of globalization, where the demand-side indicators exports and imports enter as key elements, and include adjustments for the impact of rapidly falling prices of ICT goods on investment and GDP. We adjusted the resulting trend growth rates for possible deviations between actual and potential output in the short run.
This working paper is complimentary.
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Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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