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- Impact of COVID-19 crisis on the Chinese Economy – Economic recovery continued in April but proceeded more quickly in industrial production than in services. In the near-term, the unfolding collapse in global trade plus persistent domestic labor market weakness will undermine full recovery. The 13th National People's Congress (NPC) on May 22 did not set an explicit GDP growth target for the year – a significant breakpoint for China, and strong evidence of the high economic stress and uncertainty at this juncture. We estimate that China’s aggregate growth may not return to the pre-virus level until Q4 2020, at the earliest.
- Investment Trends – Record-high credit expansion has led to a robust recovery in infrastructure construction and real estate development, but the weakening internal and external demand outlook continues to drag on manufacturing investment.
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