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- Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Chinese Economy – Stronger than expected momentum in May suggests that Q2 growth will likely be positive. However, aggregate growth will not likely resurge to a pre-coronavirus level until Q4. Risk remains biased toward the downside due to global trade and domestic labor market weakness.
- Investment Trends – Fixed Asset Investment returned to positive growth y-o-y in May. Strong fiscal expansion boosted infrastructure investment, and the loosening credit environment has fueled investment recovery in real estate development. Growth remains weak in manufacturing investment. But, if the industrial output prices’ uptick seen in June continues, and corporate profit growth strengthens as a result, then growth in manufacturing investment may improve in the 2H.
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