Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, March 24, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India remained unchanged in February 2025 at 158.7 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.2% in January. The LEI grew by 0.4% over the six-month period from August 2024 to February 2025, more muted than the 0.6% growth over the previous six-month period between February and August 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India fell steeply by 5.6% in February 2025 to 144.3 (2016=100), almost reversing the 6.1% increase in January. The Index fell by 2.8% over the past six-month period ending in January 2025, slightly more intense than the 2.2% contraction over the previous six months.

“The LEI for India was flat in February,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “A steep drop in the real effective exchange rate, which already declined in the previous two months, balanced positive contributions, largely from bank credit to the commercial sector and the PMI in services business activity. Both the six-month and annual growth rates remain much lower than in 2024, indicating potential obstacles to economic growth ahead. GDP growth strengthened to 9.3% in (quarter-on-quarter, annualized) in Q4 of 2024, after a much weaker performance in Q3. All-in-all, the Conference Board currently forecasts that India’s real GDP will slow down to 6.0% in 2025, after 6.4% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 9 A.M. ET.

The India LEI has been relatively flat for over a year

The real effective exchange rate decline balanced stronger PMI for service business activity and commercial sector bank credit

The annual growth rate inched closer to neutral in February

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around eight months.

The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for India are:

• Interest Rate Spread
• BSE: Index: Monthly Average: SENSEX
• REER: 40 Currencies
• M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector
• Merchandise Exports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Cargo Handled
• Industrial Production: Capital Goods
• India PMI: Services Business Activity

The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Indiaare:

• Industrial Production
• Total Imports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Vehicle Sales, Passenger Vehicles

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org