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For Release 10:00 AM ET, November 13, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.9% in October 2025 to 121.1 (2016=100), after a 0.8% increase in September. The LEI also increased by 0.7% over the six-month period between April and October 2025, partially reversing contraction of 2.4% over the previous six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.2% in October 2025 to 115.3 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.1% in September. The CEI expanded by 0.3% over the six-month period between April and October 2025, a smaller rate of increase than the 0.8% growth over the previous six-month period.
“The Brazil LEI increased for the second consecutive month in October, which more than offset weakness in June, July and August” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “Improvements in 6 of the 8 components drove the gain in the LEI. However, most underlying components of the Index have been relatively weak over the past six months, especially business expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors. As a result, the LEI’s annual growth was still negative, continuing to point to growth headwinds ahead. Additionally, although inflation has shown some signs of easing, still unanchored expectations continue to compel the central bank to keep monetary policy tight, which may weigh on growth in the near-term. Overall, The Conference Board forecasts real GPD to moderate in the second half of 2025, reaching only 2.5% for the year, and continue to slow over the first half of 2026.”
The next release is scheduled for Monday, December 15, 2025 at 10 A.M. ET.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in September 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around six months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for Brazil are:
The six components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org
ABOUT FGV IBRE
Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre
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All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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