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11 March 2026 / Article
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Copy LinkThe war in Iran is likely to weigh on consumer spending in 2026. Our models of the impact of the recent spike in oil prices show lower GDP growth, higher inflation, and as a result tougher choices for the Fed. Before the start of the war, consumers were already under pressure as 2025 tariffs continued to pass into retail prices. An additional tax in the form of higher prices at the pump will likely dent consumer spending elsewhere. The recent spike in policy uncertainty due to the war may prevent companies from raising headcounts. This would still nudge the unemployment rate higher in the coming months, even as companies abstain from laying off workers. This in turn could further cap personal income growth and restrain economic performance in 2026. Iran War to Test Consumer Endurance
Assuming the conflict does not spill over into the second half of the year, the TCB forecast calls for higher inflation, but a smaller negative impact on growth. Higher inflation may divert limited consumer funds towards gasoline and natural gas, thus weighing on real consumer spending. As a partial offset, higher oil prices may boost oil production domestically, delivering a positive contribution to GDP from non-residential structures investment. The need to replenish ammunition supplies could also lead to increased federal government spending and investment.
If there is a prolonged conflict, then second-order impacts would include a negative wealth effect from a stock market correction, surging uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and global supply-chain disruptions.
Elevated prices, higher borrowing costs, and uneven income growth are forcing households to make tougher trade-offs, testing the resilience that has carried spending through recent years. While t
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Increased in January
March 13, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the UK remained unchanged in January
March 12, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Increased in January
March 11, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Increased in January
March 10, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for South Korea Increased in January
March 09, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Global Economy was unchanged in December
February 26, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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