March Payrolls: The Calm Before the Tariff Storm
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Labor Markets Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

March Payrolls: The Calm Before the Tariff Storm

April 04, 2025

The US labor market remained healthy ahead of any effects from the April 2 tariff announcement, which may further weaken confidence and present labor market headwinds. US payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, beating expectations against the backdrop of ongoing federal workforce reductions and growing uncertainty, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.  

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Headline payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, but net revisions subtracted 48,000 from prior months.
  • Payroll gains were boosted by rebounds of prior weather-impacts and worker strikes, still the labor market remained mostly firm ahead of this week’s tariff announcements. 
  • The unemployment rate rose for the second consecutive month, up to 4.2% from 4.0% in January, reflecting both rising layoffs and challenged jobseekers. 
  • Federal employment declined only 4,000 in March, indicating more fallout from federal reductions will continue over coming months amid legal disputes and administrative delays.
  • JOLTS data suggests private-sector demand may be softening amid dimming confidence, with job openings falling more than anticipated in February.
  • March’s payrolls report reflected a healthy labor market ahead of the April 2 tariff announ

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