March Payrolls: The Calm Before the Tariff Storm

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Headline payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, but net revisions subtracted 48,000 from prior months.
• Payroll gains were boosted by rebounds of prior weather-impacts and worker strikes, still the labor market remained mostly firm ahead of this week’s tariff announcements. 
• The unemployment rate rose for the second consecutive month, up to 4.2% from 4.0% in January, reflecting both rising layoffs and challenged jobseekers. 
• Federal employment declined only 4,000 in March, indicating more fallout from federal reductions will continue over coming months amid legal disputes and administrative delays.
• JOLTS data suggests private-sector demand may be softening amid dimming confidence, with job openings falling more than anticipated in February.
• March’s payrolls report reflected a healthy labor market ahead of the April 2 tariff announ