Jobs Report: April Showers, Tariff Storm Looms

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• April payrolls added a healthy 177,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate was flat at 4.2% despite growing trade uncertainty.
• Hiring gains were broad across service sectors, led by healthcare, business services, and leisure, while federal payrolls showed cuts of 9,000.
• Manufacturing payrolls were flat but showed slight weakness with a decline in average hours and in average wages—a possible early indicator of forthcoming tariff impacts—while demand in transportation & warehousing remained strong.
• Layoffs ticked up in April, but remain mild as firms that are scaling back may be doing so through reduced hours, compensation changes, or hiring pauses rather than job cuts.
• May’s report is expected to show wider disruptions as tariff and supply chain impacts begin to materialize.
• As tariff impacts unfold over the course of the year, the broader la