February Jobs Report Hints at Growing Uncertainty
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February’s Employment Report showed a 151,000 payroll gain but rising layoffs pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.1%. The labor market remained resilient through early February but faces mounting headwinds in the coming months. While the report showed some disruption from federal layoffs, March is expected to show deeper impacts.

February Jobs Report Hints at Growing Uncertainty

March 07, 2025

February’s Employment Report showed a 151,000 payroll gain but rising layoffs pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.1%. The labor market remained resilient through early February but faces mounting headwinds in the coming months. While the report showed some disruption from federal layoffs, March is expected to show deeper impacts.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™:

  • February payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% within a Household Survey showing employment losses of 588,000—an early sign of labor market wavering.
  • While the impact of federal disruptions was limited in February’s report, policy uncertainty appears to have begun weighing on business and consumer sentiment with a noticeable uptick in layoffs in February despite healthy payroll gains.
  • The March report is expected to show greater impact from federal hiring freezes, job cuts, and funding disruptions, in addition to capturing more of the private-sector layoffs announced in late February.
  • The decline in aggregate weekly hours compounds February data that point to slower GDP growth in Q1.

Figure 1. Slowing payroll growth concentrated in sectors

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Author

Mitchell Barnes

Mitchell Barnes

Economist

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