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December’s US Employment Report provides the Fed with plenty of room to stay on hold in the coming months and assess how the policies of the incoming administration affect growth and inflation outlook.
US payrolls finished 2024 with a robust 256,000 jobs added, as employment expanded across private-sector service industries. The headline unemployment rate dipped back to 4.1%, down from 4.2% prior. Wage growth remains elevated going into 2025, rising 0.3% in December for a pace of 3.9% year-over-year.
Over 2024, monthly payrolls grew by 186,000 on average. That pace exceeds 2019 and continues to reflect a resilient labor market despite a slowing hiring environment in mid-2024. Looking ahead to 2025, the US labor market is expected to remain stable, with the potential for hiring to accelerate later in the year as uncertainty about the election outcome clears. Indeed, CEO Confidence and Consumer Confidence have recently ticked up and job openings rose unexpectedly in October
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