September retail sales continued to rise as Delta wave ebbs

Retail spending in September rose $4.6 billion to $625.4 billion for the month – up 0.7 percent from the previous month and up 13.9 percent from a year earlier. These improvements were not merely a function of rising prices: adjusted for inflation, sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 8.1 percent year-over-year. As the severity of the Delta wave continues to abate, these data suggest that American consumers still have an appetite to spend as we enter the last quarter of the year.

Spending on goods was the primary driver of consumer demand in September. While spending on motor vehicles and parts continued to be held back by supply chain disruptions, retail sales excluding this category grew 0.8 percent.  Retail control, which excludes motor vehicles, gasoline, and building supplies was also up 0.8 percent from the previous month. Interestingly, spending at sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores was among the strongest categories for the month – rising 3.7 percent from August.

Meanwhile, spending on in-person services was also up. Spending at food services and drinking places rose 0.3 percent from a month earlier. Following a period of lackluster growth related to the Delta variant, spending on in-person services appears to be picking up speed once again. We expect this trend to continue over the coming months.

Overall, these data show a sustained increase in spending following a challenging period. While recent data on consumer sentiment suffered due to the spread of the Delta variant it appears that American spending remains resilient.