Retail Sales Point to Orderly Slowing of Consumption Amid Tariffs

Figure 1.  Retail Sales Slowing, but Still Solid

Sources: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board, 2025

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Consistent with our recent projections, the latest data point to continued deceleration in consumer spending growth in the current quarter relative to a more robust pace in Q4-Q1. We estimate real consumer spending growth will slow to around 2.4% in 2025 down from 2.8% last year.
• A sizable drop in retail sales in May followed a downwardly revised reading in retail sales in April. The sharp pull-back in consumer purchases was driven by autos, building materials, restaurants and gasoline stations. The data suggests tariffs did pull forward some purchases, likely at the expense of future