Retail sales of goods and food and restaurant services bested expectations in September, rising by 0.4 percent month-over-month in nominal terms and 0.3 percent month-over-month in real terms.
Real retail sales of goods and food and beverage services rose by 4.0 percent annualized in Q3, boding very well for overall real consumer spending and real GDP growth in the quarter. These data pose upside risk to our 1.8 percent annualized real GDP growth forecast for Q3 2024.
Figure 1. Real Retail Sales suggest strong Q3 real consumer spending
Sources: Census Bureau and The Conference Board.
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