Retail Sales Point to Even Stronger Q3 Spending

Real retail sales of goods and food and beverage services rose by 4.0 percent annualized in Q3, boding very well for overall real consumer spending and real GDP growth in the quarter. These data pose upside risk to our 1.8 percent annualized real GDP growth forecast for Q3 2024.

Figure 1. Real Retail Sales suggest strong Q3 real consumer spending

Sources: Census Bureau and The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®™

• Retail sales rose at a strong clip in the final month of Q3, both in nominal and real terms, signaling that US consumers, despite concerns about the future continue to spend.
• Although households pulled back on purchases of vehicles, furniture, and electronics after an early summ