Q3 Retail Sales Tracking Positively Despite August Setback
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Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

Nominal retail sales ticked up by just 0.1 percent in August and sales edged down by 0.1 percent in real terms. Despite the August setback, real retail sales over the July-August span were still 3.3 percent annualized above Q2, suggesting that Q3 consumer spending growth will still be positive even if consumption momentum slowed over the course of the quarter. We project real GDP will grow by 0.8 percent annualized in Q3.

Q3 Retail Sales Tracking Positively Despite August Setback

September 17, 2024

Nominal retail sales ticked up by just 0.1 percent in August and sales edged down by 0.1 percent in real terms. Despite the August setback, real retail sales over the July-August span were still 3.3 percent annualized above Q2, suggesting that Q3 consumer spending growth will still be positive even if consumption momentum slowed over the course of the quarter. We project real GDP will grow by 0.8 percent annualized in Q3.

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™

  • Weak nominal and real retail sales in August may have reflected a pullback in spending after July’s splurge, but also concerns about recession in the aftermath of the August equity market meltdown and increasing worries about the labor market.
  • Indeed, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey revealed an increase in the number of write-ins from consumers saying the stock market and unemployment were having a major impact on the economy. Consumers were also less upbeat about expectations for the stock market and job prospects going forward.
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Author

Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

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