Retail sales for January showed consumers pulled back sharply from a robust pace of spending at the end of 2024, which was likely driven by consumers stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariffs. Still, solid fundamentals, namely strong growth in personal income and healthy balance sheets, will likely lead consumer spending to improve in the remainder of Q1.
Figure 1. Retail Sales Plunge in January

Sources: Census Bureau and The Conference Board.
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Shutdown Aside, Growth Moderates Under Inflationary Pressures
February 20, 2026
January CPI Raises More Questions than Provides Answers
February 13, 2026
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February 10, 2026
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Global Economy was unchanged in December
February 26, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
CEO Confidence Rose Significantly in Q1 2026
February 26, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Declined in January
February 25, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Inched Up in February
February 24, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Ticked Up in January
February 23, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Increased in January
February 18, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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