Q4 GDP Borrows Strength from 2025
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Global Economic Outlook

Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

Real GDP headline growth of 2.3 percent quarter-over-quarter annualized masked a stronger underlying pace of growth in the economy at the end of 2024.

Q4 GDP Borrows Strength from 2025

January 30, 2025

Real GDP headline growth of 2.3 percent quarter-over-quarter annualized masked a stronger underlying pace of growth in the economy at the end of 2024.

Final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP excluding trade and inventories) grew at a more robust 3.1 percent pace. While consumer performance remained extremely solid throughout 2024, an atypical double-digit surge in durable goods consumption in Q4 hints at consumers stockpiling behavior ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price increases. Such strength may borrow growth from the future quarters.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The economy ending 2024 on a healthy note (GDP grew 2.5 percent year-over-year) provides solid ground for the Fed to remain patient with respect to further normalization of policy rates in H1 2025.
  • We expect the Fed to stay on hold throughout H1 2025 and resume cuts in the latter half of this year as growth slows closer to potential and inflation returns to its downward trajectory.
  • Robust consumer performance at the end of 2024 may pull some strength forward at the expens

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