Strong Growth, Slowing Inflation, Fed Dilemma
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Global Economic Outlook

Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

US real GDP grew at a robust clip in Q3 2024, and while underlying inflation has been a tad sticky, overall inflation is hovering just above the Fed’s 2-percent target. The data intensify the Fed’s dilemma over whether to cut interest rates in November and by how much.  

Strong Growth, Slowing Inflation, Fed Dilemma

October 31, 2024

US real GDP grew at a robust clip in Q3 2024, and while underlying inflation has been a tad sticky, overall inflation is hovering just above the Fed’s 2-percent target. The data intensify the Fed’s dilemma over whether to cut interest rates in November and by how much.  

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The US economy appears to be on even keel.
  • Consumers have disposable income and savings and are upbeat heading into the holiday season.
  • Industrial policies supporting infrastructure and tech continue to boost government spending.
  • Businesses investment is perking up and should improve once election uncertainty clears and the cost of capital falls with interest rates.
  • Housing activity remains weak but should pick up next year as interest rates fall.
  • Net exports continue to be a drag on the economy, but mainly because imports growth is outpacing exports growth.
  • Q4 real GDP growth may be slower as hurricane effects and inventory destocking cap the expansion.
  • Consumer spending might be a bit less robust in Q4 given the accumulation of debt, but there is

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