Hawkish Fed Cut; See You in March, Maybe?

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®™

• Unsurprisingly, the Fed cut policy rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting consistent with consensus expectations.
• There was a small likelihood of a pause given stronger-than-expected data and sticky inflation, which likely prompted the Cleveland Fed President to dissent to the cut, and for the Fed Chair to say that cutting was a close call.
• Somewhat surprisingly, FOMC participants dramatically altered projections in the SEP, with major changes to when they believe inflation will stabilize at target and when the Fed can stop cutting interest rates.
• For some FOMC participants, the new SEP did reflect their anticipation of policy changes linked to the incoming US administration.
• In The Conference Board US Economic Forecast for December 2024, posted earlier this week, we raised