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12 March 2025 / Brief
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Copy LinkDownward surprises in both month-over-month and year-over-year Headline and Core CPI measures in February offer some relief following a spike in inflation at the beginning of the year. Yet, these data do not capture the full brunt of the rapidly escalating tariff environment. While 10% tariffs on Chinese imports were in place over much of February, these tariffs were recently increased to 20% and additional levies on Canada (25%) and Mexico (25%) loom. We expect trade policy to drive inflation higher over the coming months.
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Figure 1. Year-on-Year CPI Inflation
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