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12 February 2025 / Brief
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Copy LinkUpward surprises in both month-over-month and year-over-year Headline and Core CPI measures in January will likely contribute to keeping the Fed firmly on hold in the coming months. In his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank remains resolute to bring inflation down to its 2% inflation target.
Yet, the January hot inflation print is not as bad underneath the surface as it may look at a first glance. While seasonality issues may be boosting the January readings, making inflation sticky, inflation remains on a downward trend.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™
Hotter-than-expected January CPI suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months.
Increases in the usual suspects, such as auto insurance, boosted the month-over-month print. Meanwhile rising lodging away from home and used car prices have exacerbated the rise in the January CPI. These increases may have been driven by the impact of California wildfires and should subside in future readings.
Incorporating the usual impact on the January print as firms reset non-seasonally adjusted prices in the beginning of the year, which may not be fully captured by the seasonal factors, may result in overestimating inflation in January.
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Global Economy was unchanged in December
February 26, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
CEO Confidence Rose Significantly in Q1 2026
February 26, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Declined in January
February 25, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Inched Up in February
February 24, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Ticked Up in January
February 23, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Increased in January
February 18, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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