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Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
Upward surprises in both month-over-month and year-over-year Headline and Core CPI measures in January will likely contribute to keeping the Fed firmly on hold in the coming months. In his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank remains resolute to bring inflation down to its 2% inflation target.
Yet, the January hot inflation print is not as bad underneath the surface as it may look at a first glance. While seasonality issues may be boosting the January readings, making inflation sticky, inflation remains on a downward trend.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™
Hotter-than-expected January CPI suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months.
Increases in the usual suspects, such as auto insurance, boosted the month-over-month print. Meanwhile rising lodging away from home and used car prices have exacerbated the rise in the January CPI. These increases may have been driven by the impact of California wildfires and should subside in future readings.
Incorporating the usual impact on the January print as firms reset non-seasonally adjusted prices in the beginning of the year, which may not be fully captured by the seasonal factors, may result in overestimating inflation in January.
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