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12 February 2025 / Brief
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Copy LinkUpward surprises in both month-over-month and year-over-year Headline and Core CPI measures in January will likely contribute to keeping the Fed firmly on hold in the coming months. In his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank remains resolute to bring inflation down to its 2% inflation target.
Yet, the January hot inflation print is not as bad underneath the surface as it may look at a first glance. While seasonality issues may be boosting the January readings, making inflation sticky, inflation remains on a downward trend.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™
Hotter-than-expected January CPI suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months.
Increases in the usual suspects, such as auto insurance, boosted the month-over-month print. Meanwhile rising lodging away from home and used car prices have exacerbated the rise in the January CPI. These increases may have been driven by the impact of California wildfires and should subside in future readings.
Incorporating the usual impact on the January print as firms reset non-seasonally adjusted prices in the beginning of the year, which may not be fully captured by the seasonal factors, may result in overestimating inflation in January.
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in October
December 11, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan increased in October
December 10, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for South Korea Decreased in October
December 09, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Ticked Up in October
December 09, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined Again in
December 09, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Held Steady in October
December 08, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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