No, Tamer CPI Does Not Mean Inflation Peaked
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Economic Data & Analysis

No, Tamer CPI Does Not Mean Inflation Peaked

13 January 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Moderating inflation in recent months suggests the Fed can wait until March to consider the next interest rate cut foregoing a January reduction. Scant evidence of a materially deteriorating labor market also supports a January pause.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Moderating inflation in recent months suggests the Fed can wait until March to consider the next interest rate cut foregoing a January reduction. Scant evidence of a materially deteriorating labor market also supports a January pause.

  • Additionally, the prospect of another federal government shutdown in January suggests the Fed may choose to remain on hold to get a better view of the data.
  • Despite the anticipated Fed pause, core goods inflation likely has not peaked as tariffs continue to flow through and will probably overwhelm recent moderation in core services. We estimate overall inflation to peak in Q2.
  • Given the steady state of the labor market, we continue to expect the Fed to pause in January but deliver two 25bps cuts in March and June respectively.
  • However, the possibility of major changes to the composition of the FOMC and Fed independence could alter the path of interest rates this year.


Figure 1. Services Inflation Close to Pre-Covid Pace


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Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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