August CPI Suggest September Fed Hike
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Economic Data & Analysis

August CPI Suggest September Fed Hike

11 September 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The hotter-than-expected August CPI report likely tilted the scale for FOMC voters who were on the fence between a hike and a hold.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The hotter-than-expected August CPI report likely tilted the scale for FOMC voters who were on the fence between a hike and a hold.

  • The latest CPI data failed Fed Governor Waller’s test of continued inflation deceleration as a condition for holding rates steady, and likely Chair Warsh’s too.
  • We believe the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week. We also anticipate two additional 25-basis-point hikes before the end of 2026.
  • Accordingly, we are revising our forecast from rates remaining on hold through year-end to three 25-basis-point hikes.
  • We now expect inflation pressures to persist and intensify due to higher commodity prices, especially oil, and a longer duration of passthrough via supply chains that will appear in consumer inflation in the months ahead.
  • We are already seeing this in the PPI for diesel, with higher costs beginning to transmit across the economy.
  • Three rate hikes we now expect coupled with elevated price levels may erode consumer demand, capping real consumer spending a

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

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