The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2018. The driver behind the decline is the manufacturing sector. When is the downturn of the manufacturing sector bottoming out? Not yet, but there are some early signs of recovery in business confidence among German producers. Investment contributed strongly to growth in the Euro Area in Q2. However, this may be the result of one-off adjustments related to industrial production. A possible decline may be compensated for by more government spending.