China View: Demand recovery is significantly lagging production resumption | The Conference Board
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China View: Demand recovery is significantly lagging production resumption

April 2020 | China Center Publications

The March data, while much improved from the Jan-Feb crater, show broad-based weakness across all major drivers: investment, consumption and trade. Moreover, the March readings do not reflect the collapse of global demand, now in progress due to the global spread of COVID-19, that will bring a major, second wave hit to the Chinese economy. The big concern for China’s economy regards weakening employment, its impact on household income, and in turn the impact of weakening household income on aggregate Chinese consumption. Bottom line, the March data do not indicate that a strong V-shaped recovery is in store for China in Q2. MNCs should prepare for prolonged down-market conditions. One potential silver lining, however, is that the economic stress will induce some, perhaps much, consolidation of weak Chinese competitors, hence enabling market share gains for strong foreign players that could offset the slower market growth.



Yuan Gao

Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board


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