Support our nonpartisan, nonprofit research and insights which help leaders address societal challenges.
DonateImplications for Business
Adjusting for 2020 base effects, January-February 2021data indicate softening consumption and investment growth amidst continuing strong industrial production. Strong external demand and rising prices, in part, are driving industrial production. Some overheating may also be in play. Regulators have strongly signaled their intention to taper stimulus and “normalize” monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary and fiscal support will almost certainly decrease from 2020 levels as regulators focus on reducing aggregate leverage and de-risking financial system hazards. This policy shift should see real estate investment growth slow and infrastructure investment growth remain subdued.
Exports, however, should remain a powerful economic driver. Assuming that production resumption will be slow and difficult for other competing export countries in the wake of COVID – and given the expected strength of the US recovery1 – China’s exports should remain strong in the near-term. Eventually, as global production and exporting resumes, China’s recent export share gains will dissipate.
Overall, members should expect a slowdown in China’s economic recovery that will possibly start in the second half of this year.
For access to the full report, please contact our research or membership staff listed on the last page of the downloabable Executive Summary PDF. |
1 Forecast Update: 2021 rebound may be stronger than previously expected
Support our nonpartisan, nonprofit research and insights which help leaders address societal challenges.
DonateTo access the event portal for speaker presentations, enter the Username and Password you used when creating your account. If you haven't confirmed your account you'll need to do this before your account will be active. Presentation availability are subject to speaker permission for sharing.