EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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• Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Chinese Economy – Data suggest that the recovery of demand in China is strengthening enough to yield a Q4 GDP reading that is close to the pre-pandemic level. The current pace of economic recovery should thus sustain through early 2021, but momentum is likely to weaken by or before the 2H as a function of expected slowdowns in both property investment and exports.

• Investment Trends – Investment growth continues to uptick, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure all advancing. Looking forward, ample funding should support continued investment growth in real estate and infrastructure development through the near-term. The longer-term outlook for investment will depend on the government’s policy stance regarding financing for highly leveraged real estate developers and for indebted local governments. In both areas, policy is expected to gradually tighten. 

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AUTHOR

Yuan Gao

Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board