China View: Optimistic outlook over the near-term; but headwinds expected in late 2021 | The Conference Board
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China View: Optimistic outlook over the near-term; but headwinds expected in late 2021


December 2020 | China Center Publications

November data confirm that China’s economic recovery continues apace. Growth in exports, manufacturing investment, and retail sales (in real terms) all exceeded pre-COVID levels in November. The Central Economic Work Conference last week vowed continuity in policy support in 2021 which reduced market concerns over a sharp policy shift. Recovery growth should thus sustain through 1H 2021, even with marginal credit tightening. Given the low base of comparison from 2020, China’s GDP is expected to expand 8.1 percent in 2021. While the near-term outlook is optimistic, headwinds are anticipated in late 2021 as a function of slowing exports and property investment and tightening liquidity conditions. Moderating demand caused by these factors will drag on industrial profitability and manufacturing investment.


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Yuan Gao

Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board


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