The Conference Board China Economy Watch (Sep 2020 Data) | The Conference Board
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Conference Board China Economy Watch (Sep 2020 Data)
  • Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Chinese Economy – China’s GDP growth accelerated to from 3.2 percent y-o-y in Q2 to 4.9 percent in Q3. The consumption recovery still lags industrial production growth by a wide margin. To restore pre-COVID economic normalcy, consumption and services growth must substantially recover. Pandemic impacts, though diminishing, will continue to drag on growth into 2021. China’s economic recovery should nonetheless sustain through 2021, but growth momentum will likely be weaker than Q2 and Q3 of this year.
  • Investment Trends – In September, YTD Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth turned positive for the first time this year. Very strong corporate loan growth in recent months should extend FAI recovery over the short term. Housing market data in September suggest property investment growth is peaking. Growth in infrastructure investment is moderating, but we still expect a strong rebound in infrastructure investment in 2021.

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AUTHOR

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Yuan Gao

Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board


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