Continued recovery in April comes with continued concerns | The Conference Board
The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. 

ECONOMY WATCH REPORTS

Continued recovery in April comes with continued concerns

April data show gradual and continuing recovery overall, and show a robust rebound in industrial production where state policy tools play a big role. But so far, the demand recovery is disappointing, especially given the high expectations for pent-up purchasing in this post-lock down period. (China’s lockdown was massive – see: “local mobility controls”.) Thankfully, secondary outbreaks appear to be contained for now, and confidence regarding public safety appears to be improving. However, the short-term economic outlook remains dismal. The “double whammy” of global economic weakness on China’s export sector, plus severe domestic labor market weakness, will not be easy to remedy by policy makers, certainly not in any quick way. Members should expect a prolonged period of slow topline growth – a U-shaped recovery per se. The 13th NPC revealed some details regarding forthcoming stimulus measures; but, as we anticipated, the program is smaller than markets expected. We expect the government to be comparatively frugal with its stimulus measures, both to preserve limited fiscal resources and to prevent funds from flowing into financial assets a la 2008-2010.

To get complimentary access to this publication click "Read more" to sign in or create an account.

Support Our Work

Support our nonpartisan, nonprofit research and insights which help leaders address societal challenges.

Donate

OTHER RELATED CONTENT

WEBCASTS

Economy Watch

Economy Watch

September 09, 2020

Economy Watch

Economy Watch

October 14, 2020