US View: The US economy entered 2020 on sure footing, but a shift from consumption to investment is key to sustain growth

February 2020 | Economy Watch Reports

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The US economy performed better than expected in Q4 2019, and January’s jobs report was stronger than most forecasters anticipated. Additionally, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the US rose in January, and its six-month growth rate is now in positive territory. While this is good news, The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will slow to 2.0 percent in 2020 from 2.3 percent in 2019. The composition of growth is also changing: US consumer strength is moderating slightly, while business spending is expected to improve. We also expect strength in residential investment to buoy economic growth. But as old risks, like an escalation of the US-China trade dispute, appear to be ebbing, new risks are taking their place. The COVID-19 outbreak could be a threat to the world economy in the first half of the year, but the impact on the US economy is likely to be insignificant.