The Conference Board Economy Watch August 2020 United States View: The recent rebound in US economic activity may be fleeting in H2 2020 | The Conference Board
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The Conference Board Economy Watch August 2020 United States View: The recent rebound in US economic activity may be fleeting in H2 2020


August 2020 | Economy Watch Reports

Steady improvements in economic indicators in recent months have resulted in a stronger than expected rebound from substantially depressed levels in economic activity heading into the summer. However, looking ahead, that momentum may be moderating. A surge in COVID-19 cases over the summer has led to partial lockdowns in various parts of the country. Simultaneously, extremely elevated levels of unemployment will likely hurt consumer demand as we enter the fall and winter seasons. The recovery path remains highly uncertain. An industry-based forecast model developed by The Conference Board yields two scenarios for 2020 with a range of annual economic contractions of -5.0 to -3.3 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. Recovery to precrisis levels in the near term remains unlikely. 


AUTHOR

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Erik Lundh

Senior Economist
The Conference Board


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