Steady improvements in economic indicators in recent months have resulted in a stronger than expected rebound from substantially depressed levels in economic activity heading into the summer. However, looking ahead, that momentum may be moderating. A surge in COVID-19 cases over the summer has led to partial lockdowns in various parts of the country. Simultaneously, extremely elevated levels of unemployment will likely hurt consumer demand as we enter the fall and winter seasons. The recovery path remains highly uncertain. An industry-based forecast model developed by The Conference Board yields two scenarios for 2020 with a range of annual economic contractions of -5.0 to -3.3 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. Recovery to precrisis levels in the near term remains unlikely.